Comments on: A 1990s Forecast of a Possible Effect of Global Warming on an Endangered Species http://www.danielbbotkin.com/2007/03/19/global-warming-and-other-climate-changes/ Reflections of a renegade naturalist Tue, 15 Jun 2010 21:12:29 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Dan http://www.danielbbotkin.com/2007/03/19/global-warming-and-other-climate-changes/comment-page-1/#comment-486 Dan Sat, 26 Jan 2008 17:42:14 +0000 http://207.212.194.67/archives/27#comment-486 <p>Theo Richel makes a good point. I noted in the original article that the Audubon Society and government agencies (the State of Michigan, and the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service to be specific) took actions to provide a sustainable habitat for the warbler. Michigan set aside 38,000 acres within which stands of jack pine are burned and managed for this species. What has not been done is to check whether there is a slowing in the growth of jack pine, which was the primary direct measure of the forecasting methods I used. If jack pine has started to decline at all, this still might cause trouble for the warbler in the future. But the good news about the Kirtland's warbler suggests that focus on habitat conservation and improvement ----on mitigating the effects of global warming in general ---- can more than correct the expected negative effects of global warming. </p> Theo Richel makes a good point. I noted in the original article that the Audubon Society and government agencies (the State of Michigan, and the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service to be specific) took actions to provide a sustainable habitat for the warbler. Michigan set aside 38,000 acres within which stands of jack pine are burned and managed for this species. What has not been done is to check whether there is a slowing in the growth of jack pine, which was the primary direct measure of the forecasting methods I used. If jack pine has started to decline at all, this still might cause trouble for the warbler in the future. But the good news about the Kirtland’s warbler suggests that focus on habitat conservation and improvement —-on mitigating the effects of global warming in general —- can more than correct the expected negative effects of global warming.

]]> By: Theo Richel http://www.danielbbotkin.com/2007/03/19/global-warming-and-other-climate-changes/comment-page-1/#comment-415 Theo Richel Wed, 09 Jan 2008 22:16:11 +0000 http://207.212.194.67/archives/27#comment-415 <p>Dear dr Botkin,<br /> I read your comment in the NYT where you referred to the Kirtland Warbler. I felt inspired and started to search the internet and found this page (http://www.nature.org/magazine/spring2006/features/art17199.html ) where the following quote comes from:<br /> 'In 1974 and again in 1987, trained observers in Michigan counted only 167 singing males. State and federal agencies poured millions of dollars into creating and maintaining the conditions the bird requires for successful nesting. Decades later, their efforts appear to be succeeding: The June 2005 census yielded 1,415 singing males, the most ever'. I do not know whether this matured in a peer reviewed study, but it looks serious enough. I look out to your reaction and thank you beforehand.</p> <p>yours</p> <p>Theo Richel<br /> www.richel.org/resume</p> Dear dr Botkin,
I read your comment in the NYT where you referred to the Kirtland Warbler. I felt inspired and started to search the internet and found this page (http://www.nature.org/magazine/spring2006/features/art17199.html ) where the following quote comes from:
‘In 1974 and again in 1987, trained observers in Michigan counted only 167 singing males. State and federal agencies poured millions of dollars into creating and maintaining the conditions the bird requires for successful nesting. Decades later, their efforts appear to be succeeding: The June 2005 census yielded 1,415 singing males, the most ever’. I do not know whether this matured in a peer reviewed study, but it looks serious enough. I look out to your reaction and thank you beforehand.

yours

Theo Richel
http://www.richel.org/resume

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