Comments for Daniel B. Botkin

Comment on The Great Baseball Bat Crisis by Sara Miller

Sara Miller — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 03:21:42 +0000

I know this might not be the most appropriate place to post this but for other readers living in the USA are you concerned about the debt? It just seems like it is getting to the point where the country is going to go bankrupt and my husband and I are just a little concerned that our kids and grandkids are going to have some big problems in a few years. Thanks for letting me vent, Sara

Comment on Energy Pros and Cons by third demon

third demon — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 19:40:46 +0000

what is with all this money and not having enough for energy? i say we find one element of energy and invest everything we into improving the way we use or how we use it until we have once more a reliable source to count on.

Comment on Tipping Points, Global Warming and the Balance of Nature by Dan

Dan — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 02:55:08 +0000

To Tim.
Nothing I wrote was intended to suggest that system could not undergo bifurcations. However, some of what you are writing about refers to compariatvely abstract and theoretical systems. My own experience has focused on the dynamics of ecological systems, and it is less clear for these, with the current state of knowledge, the extent to which unstable oscillations can and are likely to lead to rapid shifts. Whether one wants to call them “unpredictable” when they arise from specific mathematical formulations goes beyond what I could discuss in a short op-ed piece, or even briefly on this website, but it is a topic that deserves considerable study.

Comment on Afterward by Robert Redford – Passage of Discovery: An Ecologist’s Guide to the Missouri River of Lewis and Clark by Gil Meierotto

Gil Meierotto — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 06:03:44 +0000

Just want to say your article is striking. The clarity in your post is simply striking and i can take for granted you are an expert on this subject. Well with your permission allow me to grab your rss feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please keep up the ac complished work. Excuse my poor English. English is not my mother tongue.

Comment on Tipping Points, Global Warming and the Balance of Nature by Tim

Tim — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 18:52:47 +0000

I agree that it is all too common to interpret environmental change in the context of multiple stable states. Something that does not bounce back within our scientific attention span is deemed to have transitioned to a new stable regime. Your example of the gradual loss of sea ice is a good one — no sudden switch required.

What I am confused about is why you seem to insist that bifurcations are inconsistent with constantly changing systems? It is well known that systems exhibiting complex, sometimes unstable oscillations are capable of rapid unpredictable shifts. (Depending on the situation, the switching can be between attractors and in other circumstances a bifurcation occurring when a driver is gradually changed.) There seems to be little confusion about this among mathematical modelers.

I encountered your site indirectly via your WSJ article. I found that piece frankly muddled and bit misleading (although I think I’m getting a clearer idea of where you’re coming from after reading some of this site). The analogy between “balance of nature” and current climate models seems misplaced. What specifically are you proposing as an alternative to current modeling approaches?

Comment on Chapter 13 – Passage of Discovery: An Ecologist’s Guide to the Missouri River of Lewis and Clark by wildlife hunt

wildlife hunt — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 09:06:34 +0000

I like your blog. I have been reading a lot here. Thank you for all your work!

Comment on Can Nuclear Energy Solve Our Energy Crisis? by Dan

Dan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 22:04:00 +0000

To Red Craig:

Yes, my book emphasis the challenge of the energy transition we face, to the point of considering a number of scenarios for the transition away from fossil fuels, including the costs. I think we are so used to having inexpensive gasoline, kerosene, and diesel liquids that we forgot how amazing these how — how much energy they contain and how easy they are to transport. It is going to be difficult and expensive to replace them or make them ourselves rather than be able to extract them from the ground.

Dan Botkin

Comment on Tipping Points, Global Warming and the Balance of Nature by anonymiss

anonymiss — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:54:53 +0000

Blah, blah…so should we just take our chances with the environment while continuing to ignore the obvious benefits of investing in “clean”, renewable energy? I’m having my home weatherized and installing a solar hot water heating system to provide domestic hot water and hot water for space heating purposes. When it’s all said and done, I suspect that the reduction in electricity usage will be significant – perhaps as much as 30%-40%. Weatherizing -insulating the attic/crawlspace, caulking/weatherstripping windows and doors – will probably save us another 30% since most of our consumption is a result of lost heat due to a combination of poor insulation and air infiltration. This system will pay for itself in a matter of 3 years or so, and a 30% federal tax credit + state-specific incentives/rebates make installation very affordable, particularly when paid for as part of an EEM (Energy-Efficient Mortgage) or FHA backed home improvement loan.
I’m fortunate in having a south-facing, unshaded roof that’s ideal for a solar hot water heating system. I don’t see why people are complacent in relying on a bunch of polluting, price-gouging energy monopolies to keep them from freezing/having a heatstroke when all the heat/electricity we need can be generated from those rays of sunshine beating down on our rooftops! We ought to be marching in the streets, demanding an end to the environmental and economic injustices we’ve become party to. There used to be a time when we weren’t surrounded with petroleum by-products, we didn’t have to worry about the air or water being polluted with industrial wastes, and we didn’t have people trying to tell us that the waste was somehow GOOD for us (just not good for plants or wildlife, as if we are somehow so fundamentally different than the rest of the animal kingdom as to be unaffected by something that is very clearly POISONOUS).

There’s no excuse why every south-facing, unshaded structure shouldn’t be sporting some kind of solar collector(s). We have the technology, and we have the means to mass-produce and install it. So it makes other energy sources obsolete, who cares? Either the energy monopolies need to get on board with renewable, CLEAN energy or they go out of business. Isn’t that how the free market is supposed to work?

Comment on Can Nuclear Energy Solve Our Energy Crisis? by Red Craig

Red Craig — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:48:29 +0000

Dan, I’d like very much to have a continuing dialog. Your arguments are all based on your book so I will have to wait for it to be published. I hope you’ve included some consideration of the magnitude of the challenge: in a few decades the world has to completely transform most of its energy supply, rebuild its energy infrastructure, implement intensive and universal conservation measures as well as changes in farming practices and land clearing, and redirect its culture away from fuel-consuming recreation. It seems clear that if we shy away from solutions because they seem like too much trouble we’re doomed.

Best wishes
Red

Comment on Can Nuclear Energy Solve Our Energy Crisis? by Dan

Dan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 12:46:41 +0000

Red Craig,

It’s delightful to get such a thoughtful response. This is the kind of exchange that can be constructive and move us forward. To respond to some of your new points:

* I agree that the liberty ship program could serve as a model in the sense of a consistent design and a national commitment to resolving a major problem. However, it is also clear that we are in a stage of rapidly evolving technology, so we don’t want to get locked into just one design for every energy type.

* Fuel supply, my calculations are specifically about conventional, currently-in-use nuclear plant technology.
As I discuss in detail in my forthcoming book, every time I searched out information about one of the new nuclear powerplants, I was disappointed to find how much more work was needed before they could be built and put online, including siting and certification.

* The calculations I made comparing wind and nuclear are real-world, based on existing installations and their actual annual outputs, including down-time for wind.

* Wind is much cheaper to build today than nuclear, as cheap as a coal-fired power plant in construction costs, and not requiring the costs of fuel.

* Your estimates of the area required are contradicted by the actual large facilities now in operation across a wide range of locations. I was surprised by how small an area in the United States lower 48 would be required if the large majority of our energy came from wind and solar. The details, too long to go into here, are in my new book, but are surprisingly small.

* We disagree about nuclear wastes. That remains a huge and unresolved problem.

* In my book, I discuss the percentage of power that nuclear could provide; I don’t dismiss it nor any other possible source. Each is considered in turn.

Perhaps we could have an ongoing dialogue and continue this discussion. This website is certainly open to it.

Dan Botkin