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Daniel B. Botkin

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A 1990s Forecast of a Possible Effect of Global Warming on an Endangered Species

March 19, 2007 By Daniel Botkin 2 Comments

The underlying reason that we are having trouble dealing with global warming is that we are not used to dealing with environmental change. This is true both in the history of beliefs and ideas in Western Civilization and in modern environmental sciences, which are formulated primarily in terms of steady-state conditions and theory. In Western Civilization the idea is known as the Great Balance of Nature   that nature undisturbed by people achieves a permancy of form and structure which is best of itself, for us, and for all life. (I discuss this in my book, Discordant Harmonies, and pursue its many implications in another book, No Man's Garden.)

Case in point: In 1991, I and several colleagues published a forecast about how global warming would effect the Kirtland's warbler, an endangered species that nests only in Michigan. The state of Michigan had set aside 38,000 acres of jack pine forest, the only kind of forest in which this bird nested, and managed these for the warbler. 

The warbler nests only in young jack pine woodlands, and jack pine only comes in after a fire. It can't grow in the shade of taller trees, so if there are no fires, jack pine disappears. Periodic fires set intentionally in the Kirtland's warbler's forest were benefiting the bird. This raised the question: if the climate warms and jack pine can no longer grow in the part of Michigan where the warbler nests, what will happen to the bird's habitat? (For reasons not completely understood, the warbler only nests in a specific kind of sandy soil found only in southern Michigan, so the bird is unlikely to migrate north.)

The computer model of forest growth that I developed with colleagues at IBM Thomas J. Watson Laboratory (available to download at  www.naturestudy.org) forecast that by 2015 jack pine would decline significantly and the warbler would begin to get into trouble.
Oddly, although there is so much written and said about global warming, and although this 1991 prediction got the attention of newspapers around the world, no one has tried to see if the forecast is turning out ot be valid. Here's an opportunity to test at least one global warming forecast. Why is nobody taking advantage of this test? (Stay tuned.)

Forecast Jack pine forest under present climate and 40 years in the future

Jack pine forest now Jack pine forest - 40 years in the future

These forecasts are based on the use of the JABOWA forest model (see www.naturestudy.org) and a standard climate model.

Copyright © 2007 Daniel B. Botkin

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Filed Under: Climate, Energy & Biodiversity, Global Warming and Life

Comments

  1. Theo Richel says

    January 9, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    Dear dr Botkin,
    I read your comment in the NYT where you referred to the Kirtland Warbler. I felt inspired and started to search the internet and found this page (http://www.nature.org/magazine/spring2006/features/art17199.html ) where the following quote comes from:
    ‘In 1974 and again in 1987, trained observers in Michigan counted only 167 singing males. State and federal agencies poured millions of dollars into creating and maintaining the conditions the bird requires for successful nesting. Decades later, their efforts appear to be succeeding: The June 2005 census yielded 1,415 singing males, the most ever’. I do not know whether this matured in a peer reviewed study, but it looks serious enough. I look out to your reaction and thank you beforehand.

    yours

    Theo Richel
    http://www.richel.org/resume

    Reply
  2. Dan says

    January 26, 2008 at 10:42 am

    Theo Richel makes a good point. I noted in the original article that the Audubon Society and government agencies (the State of Michigan, and the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service to be specific) took actions to provide a sustainable habitat for the warbler. Michigan set aside 38,000 acres within which stands of jack pine are burned and managed for this species. What has not been done is to check whether there is a slowing in the growth of jack pine, which was the primary direct measure of the forecasting methods I used. If jack pine has started to decline at all, this still might cause trouble for the warbler in the future. But the good news about the Kirtland’s warbler suggests that focus on habitat conservation and improvement —-on mitigating the effects of global warming in general —- can more than correct the expected negative effects of global warming.

    Reply

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From Daniel B. Botkin, Ph.D

Daniel Botkin
I believe we are mostly on the wrong track in the way we try to deal with the environment. Everything I do, study, learn, and advise about the environment is different from the status quo. Throughout my career, I have tried to understand how nature works and use that understanding to figure out how we can solve our most pressing environmental problems.

My process over the past 45 years has been to look carefully at the facts, make simple calculations from them (sometimes simple computer models) and then tell people what I have learned. It’s surprising how rarely people bother to look at the facts. This has surprised me every time I’ve started a new ecology research project or work on an environmental issue.

In the course of my work and studies, I have learned many things and I want to tell you about them. That is the purpose of this website.

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Books by Dan Botkin

The Moon in the Nautilus Shell  Strange Encounters
Powering the Future  No Man's Garden
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Jabowa III Forest Model


Jabowa Forest Model
Jabowa Forest Model for Windows 7.
This forest model, used around the world, was developed first in 1970 by Daniel B. Botkin, James F. Janak and James R. Wallis

JABOWA remains the most completely detailed and well validated forest growth model available, accounting for 95% or more of the variation in real forests where it has been tested.

The book Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model (available as an eBook) provides a complete description of the model and the rationales behind its development.

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Sea Ice Study

The Bockstoce and Botkin Historical Sea Ice Data Study has a new home at the University of Alaska website. The data include more than 52,000 daily observations in an unbroken 65 year record from 1849 – 1914.

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