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Daniel B. Botkin

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Will Global Warming Cause the Extinction of Many Species?

May 16, 2007 By Daniel Botkin 1 Comment

The sandhill crane, pictured here in Okeefenokee Swamp, Georgia, was the first species protected as endangered by an international treaty between the U.S. and Canada, in 1916. Today there are more than 300,000 of these cranes. But one subspecies, the Mississippi Sandhill, numbers only about 110 and is still listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973.

The March, 2007, issue of the scientific journal, BioScience, has a new article by Daniel B. Botkin and colleagues titled Forecasting Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity.

The news release from this journal's parent organization, the American Institute of Biological Sciences, writes that "current mathematical models indicate that many species could be at risk from global warming, surprisingly few species became extinct during the past 2.5 million years, a period encompassing several ice ages. They suggest that this 'Quaternary conundrum' arises because the models fail to take adequate account of the mechanisms by which species persist in adverse conditions. Consequently, the researchers believe that current projections of extinction rates are overestimates.' "

There are 19 authors of this paper, from Australia, Denmark, France, Great Britain, Australia, and the United States; these include some of the world's top scientists concerning ecological forecasting and the history, ecology, and genetics of extinction.

See the article at The American Institute of Biological Sciences.

One of the paper's coauthors, Matthew J. Sobel of Case Western Reserve University, said, regarding this paper, that "The simultaneous widespread and justified alarm over global warming and changes in biodiversity has induced both outstanding scientific research and deplorable pseudoscientific work,"

According to a news release from Case Western Reserve, "Sobel raises concerns about the `blurring' of scientific fact with public advocacy and wants public discussions to center around sound environmental facts. `Where the science has limitations that should be noted, too,' added Sobel. His concern is that misinformation or poorly constructed forecasts may divert and reduce resources that could be better spent in other areas. Limits of scientific knowledge exist with current forecasting models, according to Sobel, and these need to be acknowledged when reporting global warming."

Matthew Sobel is the William E. Umstattd Professor at the Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University.

We still must be concerned about global warming and threats to the diversity of life on the Earth. There is not just one threat from human activities to the diversity of life; there are several major ones, including disruption of habitats, introduction of non-native species into new habitats, and many effects of technology. The good news is that species appear more resilient to rapid climate change than thought previously. The implication is that sound planning and policies to deal with biological diversity needs to include the multiple causes. The new article also calls for better methods of forecasting --- better computer models --- and better use of available data about past extinctions.

In the BioScience article, the researchers call for eight steps to better forecasting:

* Select one of the many meanings associated with the complex concept of biodiversity and target that meaning as the parameters in a specific forecast

* Evaluate and validate forecasting methods before applying them to general forecasts

* Consider the various factors that might impact biodiversity from climate change to pressures from humans on the native habitat of a species

* Obtain adequate information before making predictions about future outcomes

* Examine fossil records to aid in understanding how some plant and animal species have adapted to changes in their environments

* Improve four widely used techniques in forecasting that model individuals, groups,
integration of species and environmental factors and lastly groups or species based on theories

* Embed ecological principles in the forecasts based on air, water and animal and plant life.

* Develop better models that improve upon modeling forecasts called species-area curves that are based on specific number of species in relation to their habitat and how climate changes can modify the environment.

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Filed Under: Biological Diversity, Climate, Energy & Biodiversity, Global Warming and Life

Comments

  1. global warming says

    August 19, 2007 at 6:26 am

    global warming is becoming such a obvious problem that someone somewhere other than Al Gore needs to step up to help drive the bus!

    Reply

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From Daniel B. Botkin, Ph.D

Daniel Botkin
I believe we are mostly on the wrong track in the way we try to deal with the environment. Everything I do, study, learn, and advise about the environment is different from the status quo. Throughout my career, I have tried to understand how nature works and use that understanding to figure out how we can solve our most pressing environmental problems.

My process over the past 45 years has been to look carefully at the facts, make simple calculations from them (sometimes simple computer models) and then tell people what I have learned. It’s surprising how rarely people bother to look at the facts. This has surprised me every time I’ve started a new ecology research project or work on an environmental issue.

In the course of my work and studies, I have learned many things and I want to tell you about them. That is the purpose of this website.

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Books by Dan Botkin

The Moon in the Nautilus Shell  Strange Encounters
Powering the Future  No Man's Garden
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Jabowa Forest Model
Jabowa Forest Model for Windows 7.
This forest model, used around the world, was developed first in 1970 by Daniel B. Botkin, James F. Janak and James R. Wallis

JABOWA remains the most completely detailed and well validated forest growth model available, accounting for 95% or more of the variation in real forests where it has been tested.

The book Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model (available as an eBook) provides a complete description of the model and the rationales behind its development.

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The Bockstoce and Botkin Historical Sea Ice Data Study has a new home at the University of Alaska website. The data include more than 52,000 daily observations in an unbroken 65 year record from 1849 – 1914.

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