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Daniel B. Botkin

Solving environmental problems by understanding how nature works

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Scientific Opinion and the Opinion of Scientists

May 18, 2007 By Daniel Botkin Leave a Comment

Ecological scientists discussing their research on old-growth forests at Hartwick Pines State Park, the last never-logged old-growth white pine forest of Michigan. White pine forests once covered 19 million acres in the Great Lake States, but were clearcut in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

We hear a lot these days about what "scientists" are saying, believe, or have discovered. Especially with complicated scientific problems that have major implications for economics, politics, and society, it is important to understand the difference between scientific results and what a scientist says.

Scientists play three roles in our society, as I have written about in my book No Man's Garden: researcher, expert witness, and "priest." As a researcher, a scientist reports the results of a specific study he has done, objectively. As an expert witness, a scientist tells us about a subject in which he has worked, but generalizes beyond his own work, and gives a considered opinion based on his professional experience and best understanding. As a "priest" a scientist tells us what to think and what to believe.

Most of us scientists want to appear as the researcher, but in reality, most of the time, especially when we are dealing with complex scientific issues with broad policy implications, we function as expert witnesses. There is nothing wrong with this role, as long as we are honest in explaining that this is the role we are playing.

There is also a difference between what an individual scientist says and what a large group of scientists agree to say, when they are brought together by a political body and engaged in an attempt to reach a consensus. Most of the time, the result is "conventional wisdom" with all of its pitfalls, along with compromises that come about as the large group tries to deal with cultural and political differences. A report by such a large group is not scientific truth; it isn't even expert opinion; it's just a general negotiated agreement.

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From Daniel B. Botkin, Ph.D

Daniel Botkin
I believe we are mostly on the wrong track in the way we try to deal with the environment. Everything I do, study, learn, and advise about the environment is different from the status quo. Throughout my career, I have tried to understand how nature works and use that understanding to figure out how we can solve our most pressing environmental problems.

My process over the past 45 years has been to look carefully at the facts, make simple calculations from them (sometimes simple computer models) and then tell people what I have learned. It’s surprising how rarely people bother to look at the facts. This has surprised me every time I’ve started a new ecology research project or work on an environmental issue.

In the course of my work and studies, I have learned many things and I want to tell you about them. That is the purpose of this website.

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Books by Dan Botkin

The Moon in the Nautilus Shell  Strange Encounters
Powering the Future  No Man's Garden
See all books by Dan Botkin

Jabowa III Forest Model


Jabowa Forest Model
Jabowa Forest Model for Windows 7.
This forest model, used around the world, was developed first in 1970 by Daniel B. Botkin, James F. Janak and James R. Wallis

JABOWA remains the most completely detailed and well validated forest growth model available, accounting for 95% or more of the variation in real forests where it has been tested.

The book Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model (available as an eBook) provides a complete description of the model and the rationales behind its development.

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Sea Ice Study

The Bockstoce and Botkin Historical Sea Ice Data Study has a new home at the University of Alaska website. The data include more than 52,000 daily observations in an unbroken 65 year record from 1849 – 1914.

See related papers

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