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Daniel B. Botkin

Solving environmental problems by understanding how nature works

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What Idiot said this? or The Difficulty of Predicting the Future

November 5, 2007 By Daniel Botkin 2 Comments

In his classic book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (originally published in 1941), Charles Mackay discusses how difficult it is to forecast the future, yet how fascinated and focused on this people become. Just how difficult, I came to realize today.

In researching recent literature on global warming, I came across the following quote, made in 1990: "Our projections on global warming suggest that by the year 2000, we will begin to see rapid changes over vast areas. In parts of the North, we expect to see stately old trees beginning to die back. The warmer temperature will make many trees vulnerable to insect attacks and different blights. Hikers will increasingly find themselves among dead trees. Loggers will have to choose between harvesting the dead timber and glutting the lumber and paper industries. And the diebacks will affect water supply and erosion rates. It's really overwhelming."

I wondered what idiot made this forecast --- and discovered that it was me, in Harper's magazine. The complete reference is: Pollan, M., Daniel B. Botkin, Dave Foreman, James Lovelock, Frederick Turner, Robert D. Yaro. (1990). "Only Man's Presence Can Save Nature." Harper's magazine (April issue) pp. 37-48.

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Filed Under: Climate, Energy & Biodiversity, Global Warming and Life

Comments

  1. Philip Segal says

    November 30, 2007 at 11:33 am

    I think Popular Delusions… was published in the 1800s.

    Reply
  2. L. Carey says

    April 14, 2009 at 7:58 am

    Just ran across this — why are you beating yourself up in this piece, you were right. Have you been hiking in any of the areas of the western mountains devastated by the bark beetle infestations (likely made possible by AGW induced warming and drying trends).
    See “Tree Death & Climate Change” and the links therein
    http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/?p=3627
    See also “Science: Global Warming and U.S. Tree Deaths” and links therein
    http://climateprogress.org/2009/01/23/science-global-warming-is-killing-us-trees-a-dangerous-carbon-cycle-feedback/

    Reply

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From Daniel B. Botkin, Ph.D

Daniel Botkin
I believe we are mostly on the wrong track in the way we try to deal with the environment. Everything I do, study, learn, and advise about the environment is different from the status quo. Throughout my career, I have tried to understand how nature works and use that understanding to figure out how we can solve our most pressing environmental problems.

My process over the past 45 years has been to look carefully at the facts, make simple calculations from them (sometimes simple computer models) and then tell people what I have learned. It’s surprising how rarely people bother to look at the facts. This has surprised me every time I’ve started a new ecology research project or work on an environmental issue.

In the course of my work and studies, I have learned many things and I want to tell you about them. That is the purpose of this website.

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Books by Dan Botkin

The Moon in the Nautilus Shell  Strange Encounters
Powering the Future  No Man's Garden
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Jabowa III Forest Model


Jabowa Forest Model
Jabowa Forest Model for Windows 7.
This forest model, used around the world, was developed first in 1970 by Daniel B. Botkin, James F. Janak and James R. Wallis

JABOWA remains the most completely detailed and well validated forest growth model available, accounting for 95% or more of the variation in real forests where it has been tested.

The book Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model (available as an eBook) provides a complete description of the model and the rationales behind its development.

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The Bockstoce and Botkin Historical Sea Ice Data Study has a new home at the University of Alaska website. The data include more than 52,000 daily observations in an unbroken 65 year record from 1849 – 1914.

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