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Bridges, Wayfarers, and Risk Assessment

May 24, 2013 By Daniel Botkin Leave a Comment

Thursday, May 23, 2013, the Interstate 5 bridge over the Skagit River at Mount Vernon, state of Washington, collapsed. The immediate cause was a truck carrying an oversized load hitting the bridge.  But a federal database had listed the bridge as “functionally obsolete.”  This suggests that the feds knew that the bridge ought to have been repaired or replaced.

As someone who works on environmental problems, I am frequently asked what assurances we can have that an environmental problem will actually be solved, even when we know both the problem and the solution.  My general answer is that, unfortunately, with most aspects of life that pose risks, we tend to muddle through — we fix things after they are broke, not when we know they are about to break.

Carter Ferry DBB 29jun06 200 dpi 01
One way to cross a river: The Carter Ferry on the Missouri River near Ft. Benton, Montana. The ferry holds one car and is guided by a cable and powered largely by the force of the river's waters. I have taken this ferry several times. It's a great way to see a bit of the upper Missouri River.

This new bridge collapse happened close to the 6th anniversary of the August 21, 2007 collapse of the Interstate 35W bridge across the Mississippi River at Minneapolis, during evening rush hour, killing 13 people and injuring 145 others. The National Transportation Safety Board  reported that the I-35W bridge collapsed because gusset plates broke, and they broke because they were too thin. Gusset plates are steel sheets used to connect beams and girders to columns or other weight-bearing structures on a bridge.  The I-35W gusset sheets were ½" thick, said to be too thin.  I would expect that  somebody knew this beforehand, but haven’t found that evidence.

It may surprise you that people leaving bridges untouched that need fixing until they collapse has a very long history.  A fascinating, small book published in 1897, titled English Wayfaring Life in the Middle Ages, tells the same story way back in those Middle Ages.  Then, few people “wayfared” — actors, traders, brigands, soldiers, religious pilgrims, Lords and their retinues.

At first they would come to a river they needed to cross that did not have a bridge, and they would persuade the local farmer, whose land abutted the river, to row them across, for a small fee.  If and when those wanting to cross became a crowd and made a good job in itself, the farmer would arrange to have a toll bridge built, typically out of stone.  He would make a living off that bridge, and his sons and grandsons would inherit it.

A generation or two after its construction, pieces of the bridge would begin to fall off, and worrisome people would complain and say that the bridge would need to be repaired.  But the typical answer was “It’s stood there for a century, so it’s still good.” And then the bridge would collapse, there would be a hew and cry,  and people would get busy rebuilding it.

Having directed a number of projects whose goal was to solve an environmental problem, or at least find out from a scientific basis what was needed to solve it, I often reflect on the history of bridges and the long-standing human tendency to don’t fix ‘um until they’re broke.  It’s muddling through.  I hope that we can do better about our environmental problems, but this history isn’t exactly encouraging.

(The book is: Jusserand, J.J., ENGLISH WAYFARING LIFE IN THE MIDDLE AGES (XIVth Century). 1897, London: Paternoster Square, London: T. Fisher Unwin.)

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From Daniel B. Botkin, Ph.D

Daniel Botkin
I believe we are mostly on the wrong track in the way we try to deal with the environment. Everything I do, study, learn, and advise about the environment is different from the status quo. Throughout my career, I have tried to understand how nature works and use that understanding to figure out how we can solve our most pressing environmental problems.

My process over the past 45 years has been to look carefully at the facts, make simple calculations from them (sometimes simple computer models) and then tell people what I have learned. It’s surprising how rarely people bother to look at the facts. This has surprised me every time I’ve started a new ecology research project or work on an environmental issue.

In the course of my work and studies, I have learned many things and I want to tell you about them. That is the purpose of this website.

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