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Daniel B. Botkin

Solving environmental problems by understanding how nature works

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Botkin Rule of Ecology #1

June 10, 2013 By Daniel Botkin 2 Comments

Green FlowerOver the years of working in the science of ecology, I have learned some basic rules.  I find that many people are unaware of them, yet have firm convictions about what we should do about the environment.  So I would like to share these rules with you.  They are easy to understand, helpful, and even fun.  I will post one of these at a time, adding to them frequently. These are going to be in a new book I am working on. And I will note the appearance of new rules on Twitter @DanielBotkin.

Here is the first.

  • Evolution is a game in which the only rule is to stay in the game.
  • Being rare is different from going extinct, as the whooping crane said to the passenger pigeon.
  • The evolutionary goal is simply to stay around, not necessarily in great numbers.
  • You can win at Darwin's game of evolution by having more offspring than your neighbor, but that doesn't mean you both have to have lots and lots and lots of offspring.
  • Being rare has some advantages: Predators have a harder time finding you, and it isn't worth as much of their effort to seek you out.
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Filed Under: Climate, Energy & Biodiversity

Comments

  1. Lucy Weir says

    January 19, 2014 at 6:06 am

    I’m sure I’m not the only one puzzled by this single ‘rule’ when you promise us ‘rules’. Natural laws (or ‘rules’, as you have it) are probabilities, of course (though the carrier pigeon might disagree). You refer to the ‘game’ of evolution but I’m not sure this extended metaphor works. I’m interested in what Andrew Chitty calls ‘human condition imaginaries’, that is, the imagined extended metaphors we use to help us describe our circumstances to ourselves. Game theory is very interesting and very useful for understanding human relationships but when you’re talking about evolution, Scott Sampson’s metaphors work better: the idea of a game implies awareness, action-based agency, and other anthropomorphic categories. Sampson’s whirlpools of life, on the other hand, give a much broader context to what is happening that make it easier to imagine how mathematical data and modelling would allow us to better understand the interrelationships between species and systems.

    Reply
    • Daniel Botkin says

      January 19, 2014 at 8:13 am

      Lucy, I’m in the midst of writing a book about these rules, and right now am developing the best order. Once I settle on the order, I will be adding more “rules” here. And in the book, each of the “rules” has a description, which will include discussion of the kind of think you point out.

      Daniel Botkin

      Reply

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From Daniel B. Botkin, Ph.D

Daniel Botkin
I believe we are mostly on the wrong track in the way we try to deal with the environment. Everything I do, study, learn, and advise about the environment is different from the status quo. Throughout my career, I have tried to understand how nature works and use that understanding to figure out how we can solve our most pressing environmental problems.

My process over the past 45 years has been to look carefully at the facts, make simple calculations from them (sometimes simple computer models) and then tell people what I have learned. It’s surprising how rarely people bother to look at the facts. This has surprised me every time I’ve started a new ecology research project or work on an environmental issue.

In the course of my work and studies, I have learned many things and I want to tell you about them. That is the purpose of this website.

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Books by Dan Botkin

The Moon in the Nautilus Shell  Strange Encounters
Powering the Future  No Man's Garden
See all books by Dan Botkin

Jabowa III Forest Model


Jabowa Forest Model
Jabowa Forest Model for Windows 7.
This forest model, used around the world, was developed first in 1970 by Daniel B. Botkin, James F. Janak and James R. Wallis

JABOWA remains the most completely detailed and well validated forest growth model available, accounting for 95% or more of the variation in real forests where it has been tested.

The book Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model (available as an eBook) provides a complete description of the model and the rationales behind its development.

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Sea Ice Study

The Bockstoce and Botkin Historical Sea Ice Data Study has a new home at the University of Alaska website. The data include more than 52,000 daily observations in an unbroken 65 year record from 1849 – 1914.

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