In 1968, I began scientific research on the possible ecological effects of global warming, and published my first scientific paper about this subject in 1973. During the same period, I developed a computer model of forest growth. Called JABOWA, it became one of the major methods in the 1980s and 1990s to forecast possible effects of global warming on forests and some endangered … [Read more...]
Freeman Dyson on Tipping Points
A recent Sunday New York Times article features an interview with Nobel Laureate physicist Freeman Dyson, who expresses concerns about global warming and mentions tipping points. This makes a good companion piece to my post, Tipping Points, Global Warming and the Balance of Nature. … [Read more...]
Tipping Points, Global Warming and the Balance of Nature
Tipping points are in the news these days because some of the well-known scientists who are concerned about global warming keep telling us that the Earth --- the Earth’s global environment, that is --- is nearing a tipping point. The idea is that the environment may undergo changes from which there will be no return; the Earth’s environment will figuratively fall off a … [Read more...]
The Limits of Nuclear Power
John McCain has called for building 45 new nuclear power plants by 2030 and 100 eventually. Barack Obama's Web site says, "It is unlikely that we can meet our aggressive climate goals if we eliminate nuclear power from the table." But to what extent can nuclear power really help achieve energy independence?There's a problem about nuclear energy that gets little attention. … [Read more...]
Excerpts from Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity
by Daniel B. Botkin, Henrik Saxe, Miguel B. Araújo, Richard Betts, Richard H. W. Bradshaw, Tomas Cedhagen, Peter Chesson, Terry P. Dawson, Julie R. Etterson, Daniel P. Faith, Simon Ferrier, Antoine Guisan, Anja Skjoldborg Hansen, David W. Hilbert, Craig Loehle, Chris Margules, Mark New, Matthew J. Sobel, And David R. B. Stockwell. Published in BioScience 57(3): … [Read more...]
JoshS asks So…if you wanted to design the most energy efficient home, what shape gives you the best surface to volume ratio?
The answer is: ideally the best designed house would be as close to as sphere as possible. A Buckminster Fuller geodesic Dome is a pretty good approximation.Dan Botkin … [Read more...]
Science and soothsaying
Published originally in the International Herald Tribune December 28, 2007by Daniel B. BotkinNEW YORK:Now that the Bali conference is over and climate scientists have warned us again about the dire predictions of their climate models, a question remains: Will their forecasts come true? Given the current international focus on global warming, you would think that, in 10, … [Read more...]
Let’s Get a Little Perspective on Global Warming and Extinctions
Global warming and threats of extinction of species are two different issues. They may be connected, but let’s not confuse them. There is ample justification for moving away from fossil fuels. This is important to do not only because of the potential threats of global warming, but also because petroleum is going to become harder to get and more expensive, because our need for … [Read more...]