by Daniel B. Botkin, Henrik Saxe, Miguel B. Araújo, Richard Betts, Richard H. W. Bradshaw, Tomas Cedhagen, Peter Chesson, Terry P. Dawson, Julie R. Etterson, Daniel P. Faith, Simon Ferrier, Antoine Guisan, Anja Skjoldborg Hansen, David W. Hilbert, Craig Loehle, Chris Margules, Mark New, Matthew J. Sobel, And David R. B. Stockwell. Published in BioScience 57(3): … [Read more...]
Science and soothsaying
Published originally in the International Herald Tribune December 28, 2007by Daniel B. BotkinNEW YORK:Now that the Bali conference is over and climate scientists have warned us again about the dire predictions of their climate models, a question remains: Will their forecasts come true? Given the current international focus on global warming, you would think that, in 10, … [Read more...]
Let’s Get a Little Perspective on Global Warming and Extinctions
Global warming and threats of extinction of species are two different issues. They may be connected, but let’s not confuse them. There is ample justification for moving away from fossil fuels. This is important to do not only because of the potential threats of global warming, but also because petroleum is going to become harder to get and more expensive, because our need for … [Read more...]
What Idiot said this? or The Difficulty of Predicting the Future
In his classic book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (originally published in 1941), Charles Mackay discusses how difficult it is to forecast the future, yet how fascinated and focused on this people become. Just how difficult, I came to realize today.In researching recent literature on global warming, I came across the following quote, made in … [Read more...]
Man’s Role in a Globally Warmed World
Daniel B. Botkin Copyright © Daniel B. Botkin 2007Fifty years ago, a group of scholars and scientists --- some of America's greatest humanitarians --- published a landmark book titled Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth. It was one of the twentieth century's major statements about how people and their civilizations had changed the environment. Not only did … [Read more...]
Will Global Warming Cause the Extinction of Many Species?
The March, 2007, issue of the scientific journal, BioScience, has a new article by Daniel B. Botkin and colleagues titled Forecasting Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity.The news release from this journal's parent organization, the American Institute of Biological Sciences, writes that "current mathematical models indicate that many species could be at risk from … [Read more...]
Global Warming and Buying Insurance
Daniel B. Botkin Copyright © Daniel B. Botkin 2007As someone who has done research since 1968 on global warming and its possible effects on living things, I am impressed and surprised by the great amount of attention that the media, Congress, international bodies, and people in general are paying to this issue, which seemed to be ignored for so long. Over the years, … [Read more...]
A 1990s Forecast of a Possible Effect of Global Warming on an Endangered Species
The underlying reason that we are having trouble dealing with global warming is that we are not used to dealing with environmental change. This is true both in the history of beliefs and ideas in Western Civilization and in modern environmental sciences, which are formulated primarily in terms of steady-state conditions and theory. In Western Civilization the idea is known as … [Read more...]